A Thoughtful Letter to the World

"First, the current crisis did not start with the burst housing bubble. It started with the excessive credit that led to the
housing bubble. That excess credit resulted from the Federal Reserve holding down interest rates to less than the inflation rate in housing. This negative real interest rate (bank interest minus inflation in the housing assets) produced a powerful incentive for investment and speculation in housing. And the action of the Federal Reserve, with the increase in risk taking by banks, were a result of pressure from Congress and the public who were all enjoying the short-term rise in housing prices.

We see here one of the characteristics of a complex social system in which a policy that is good in the short run is almost always bad in the long run. Feeding the bubble with easy credit was popular in the short run but now we have the  consequent day of reckoning with the collapse of the financial system.

There are a number of papers on this matter in the "System Dynamics Group Literature Collection" DVD available at:
http://systemdynamics.org/MITCollectionDVDinfo.htm

Look for the papers on the National Model. The model itself is not there, it has not yet been released, but there are many interesting discussions and computer runs on the economic long wave (also known as the Kondatrieff Wave), which I believe explain the Great Depression of the 1930s and the economic turmoil at the present time. Given the extreme degree of government financing that is now in process, the outcome may this time be different from the 1930s."

Posted by Jay Forrester in the SD Mailing List
posting date Wed, 15 Oct 2008 19:09:42 -0400 

2012 is THE YEAR - Watch the videos yourself if you choose so

Dear Reader of this blog!

This blog started after the first Lean Thinkers Conference at the University of Applied Sciences HTW Dresden back in October 2007. The name of it stems from this time. Over time many different disciplines, perspectives, and approaches have accumulated, such as adding an intense part on Saxon State Opera Semperoper and the Semperoper Ballett Company, as well as fields like system dynamics.

After five years now, in the age of five, it seems that the "baby" has grown up to not just learn more, but to put learning into practice. In doing so, using modern information technology as the key enabler, that often comes a wall into sight, like "The Wall" that separated the "West" from the "East" and caused the "Cold War": people, and organizations stay in front of their own "mental wall" denying possible, not yet done changes in education, business, and civic engagement.

However 2012 being the 100th birthday of Alan Turing on 23rd of June (just two days before my own birthday) it enables the power of positive change towards abundance, leveling the inequalities of the world by the use of information technology across boundaries.

Peter Diamandis' latest talks about "Abundance - THE FUTURE IS BETTER THAN YOU THINK" have sparked various thoughts, and actions.

Get yourself sparked, and inspired to take action in our world of ABUNDANCE watching Peter in these two videos yourself:

If you'd like to add any thoughts, action points, or comments feel free to do so here.

Cheers, Ralf

PS.: Despite the fact "sailing through rough life waters" it is always great to be pulled forward towards one's own dreams. If you not sure what is driving me really that passionately, please ASK.